Probabilistic Methods for the Quantification of Uncertainty and Error in Computational Fluid Dynamics Simulations

The life of engine components is determined by a combination of the material properties and the applied stresses and temperatures. As a consequence of variability in these parameters, the component life is not fixed (deterministic) but stochastic (random) and may be characterised by a probability density function (PDF). In order to reduce the cost of ownership of ADF aircraft these PDFs need to be determined as accurately as possible. Probabilistic techniques offer significant potential for accurate and realistic estimates of component lives by quantifying stochastic elements of an analysis rather than introducing excessive conservatism to allow for them. This report examines the feasibility of using a probabilistic approach for modelling the component temperatures in an engine using CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics).